Forex Live


Reluctance turning to belief for CAD bulls


Published: Tuesday May 25, 2021 @ 12:41 EDT
Duration: 5.92 minutes
Views: 864
Likes: 16
Dislikes: 2
Favorite: 0
Rating: 99.88
Description: What’s Next for the Canadian dollar
1) Why CAD is the best-performer this year
The Canadian dollar is the top performing currency in the world this year and it’s not hard to see why. We’re at the start of a new economic cycle, commodities are booming and the US has spent heavily on stimulus.
When we last spoke a month ago, I highlighted 83-cents as a target and here we are. That’s 1.20 in USD/CAD. IT’s a huge inflection level and a big psychological level.
2) Disbelief is the pre-requisite for a lasting move
If you look at targets from economists and banks, they’ve been slow to move. Most still show the Canadian dollar giving some back but you can see the shift in the market. The latest futures positioning data shows a big tilt towards CAD bets.
For the long-term, corporates need to get rattled. Corporate Canada loves holding US dollars – they’re some of the stronger hands out there but 83-cents is a pain point. Soon we’ll have headlines about fresh six-year highs, then we’ll see banks and economists shift targets and then the momentum takes over.
3) Market watchers underestimate how fast CAD can run
If you look at a long-term Canadian dollar chart, you see some sharps spikes lower. Those are global risk events – the financial crisis, the oil rout, the pandemic. That’s what you’d expect. What’s more surprising is how quick some of the moves higher are. They’re not event driven but were the result of steady improvements in growth, commodities and sudden BOC shifts. CAD rose to parity from 77-cents in a year from the depts of the financial crisis. That highlights some of those tipping points for corporates.
4) Oil will be the short-term driver
The next domino is oil. Iran is the big risk this week but I’m increasingly convinced that it’s priced in. Demand is coming back and the only way for oil to go is higher. I think that’s what really rattles central banks from their dovish perch.
5) BOC offers philosophical tailwind
For the Bank of Canada, we’re already there. There’s this global shift in central banks to wait for higher inflation but I don’t think the BOC is interesting in playing that game. They’ve been able to hit their target for much of the past decade and housing is a monumental risk. So we have Canada not only disconnecting on fundamentals but we have a central bank with a materially different philosophy.
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How this trader turned $200 into $190,000 in 4 hours


Published: Friday July 31, 2020 @ 20:28 EDT
Duration: 36.47 minutes
Views: 17,461
Likes: 273
Dislikes: 21
Favorite: 0
Rating: 99.92
Description: This is the story of Thomas, the 19-year-old trader who was working the factory night shift and trading on his phone. In a remarkable run over just four hours he turned $200 to $190,000 (CAD 250,000) and kept it all. It's an amazing run of nerve, luck and conviction and he takes ForexLive's Adam Button exactly through how he did it with live video screen captures and account statements. The nearly 1000x return in 240 minutes is one of the most remarkable trading stories you will ever hear.

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Canadian dollar hits 3-year high. What's next and what's next for the US dollar


Published: Wednesday April 28, 2021 @ 17:37 EDT
Duration: 5.20 minutes
Views: 2,228
Likes: 34
Dislikes: 0
Favorite: 0
Rating: 100.00
Description: Adam Button from Forexlive.com speaks to BNNBloomberg about the outlook for the Canadian dollar and the four reasons why it will continue higher.
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BOC cracks the dam; the Fed will break it


Published: Wednesday April 21, 2021 @ 16:54 EDT
Duration: 6.37 minutes
Views: 641
Likes: 29
Dislikes: 1
Favorite: 0
Rating: 99.97
Description: Adam Button of ForexLive speaks with BNNBloomberg regarding the Bank of Canada interest rate decision on April 21, 2021. He talks about what it means for the Canadian dollar this year and how the BOC decision paves the way for other central banks to follow.
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Non trend transitions to trend. How you can sniff out trending markets.


Published: Thursday April 15, 2021 @ 21:26 EDT
Duration: 9.45 minutes
Views: 2,051
Likes: 94
Dislikes: 4
Favorite: 0
Rating: 99.96
Description: Traders tend to get mesmerized by non-trending markets. They tend not to see a way out of the ups and downs and because of it, often miss out on a trend move where the price move is fast, directional and tends to go farther than most think. In this video, Greg Michalowski of ForexLive outlines how to prepare for a trending market by looking at a recent non trend market in the AUDUSD.

5 Trading tips to trade like a pro


Published: Wednesday March 17, 2021 @ 08:44 EDT
Duration: 15.22 minutes
Views: 3,859
Likes: 130
Dislikes: 2
Favorite: 0
Rating: 99.98
Description: In this video, Greg Michalowski from Forexlive.com outlines 5 simple tips that will have you trading like a pro.

The Crouching Tiger Trade


Published: Monday March 08, 2021 @ 18:02 EST
Duration: 9.33 minutes
Views: 1,843
Likes: 71
Dislikes: 1
Favorite: 0
Rating: 99.99
Description: There are five things to look for when there’s nothing to see.
There’s an inclination to scan markets and look for volatility. Oftentimes, it’s better to look for an edge in a market that isn’t moving.
The crouching tiger will soon roar. The hidden dragon will breathe fire.
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ForexLive Webinar - Understanding Order Entry and Stop Loss settings - Sponsored by TickMill


Published: Wednesday October 07, 2020 @ 10:26 EDT
Duration: 44.42 minutes
Views: 944
Likes: 5
Dislikes: 2
Favorite: 0
Rating: 99.60
Description:

ForexLive Webinar - Understanding Technical Analysis - Sponsored by FBS


Published: Wednesday October 07, 2020 @ 10:02 EDT
Duration: 53.95 minutes
Views: 389
Likes: 9
Dislikes: 1
Favorite: 0
Rating: 99.89
Description:

RBNZ's Orr on Direct Debt Monetization


Published: Wednesday April 29, 2020 @ 10:22 EDT
Duration: 1.10 minutes
Views: 718
Likes: 11
Dislikes: 0
Favorite: 0
Rating: 100.00
Description: An unbelievable exchange on April 21, 2020 where Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Adrian Orr says he's 'open minded' on direct debt monetization. Orr is guilty of honesty here …. he is a trained and respected economist, he knows exactly what he is saying here. This clip should be viewed as a signpost and turning point in monetary policy for the 2020s, if not beyond.

7 things I wish I knew when I built my first home trading office


Published: Thursday April 16, 2020 @ 18:44 EDT
Duration: 10.35 minutes
Views: 5,460
Likes: 165
Dislikes: 5
Favorite: 0
Rating: 99.97
Description: In an earlier video, Adam Button from ForexLive took you through his ultimate home office set-up (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8XmR5eiDzIk). In this video, Adam talks about 7 things to do if you're serious about building an office at home. Whether it's a forex trading office or for work in general, you want to do it right and these home office building tips are key.

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The ultimate home trading station and office tour


Published: Saturday April 11, 2020 @ 13:58 EDT
Duration: 0.28 minutes
Views: 11,088
Likes: 299
Dislikes: 11
Favorite: 0
Rating: 99.96
Description: In a look at the ultimate trading station and home office, Adam Button from ForexLive offers a tour of his setup. During the height of the coronavirus pandemic, this is a look at an unrivaled home office for trading forex or anything else. When people see the trading station what jumps out is the 8 computer monitors and a giant sit-stand desk but it’s the little details that make or break a home trading office. This tour talks about those and all the other things you need to make a great home office.

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Visit ForexLive for real-time news, analysis and technical analysis of the forex market.
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Can central banks keep plugging leaks in the dam?


Published: Friday March 20, 2020 @ 08:29 EDT
Duration: 6.28 minutes
Views: 1,451
Likes: 31
Dislikes: 0
Favorite: 0
Rating: 100.00
Description: Adam Button from ForexLive talks about the coronavirus crisis in markets and how it's affected the Canadian dollar.
"What’s happened is a US dollar funding crunch. The world runs on US dollars and there have been no other safe havens so everyone has been piling into the dollar. The relative stability of the loonie – as tough as that is to believe – is a good sign for the Canadian financial system. We’re not seeing the level of panic moves from the BOC as some other central banks are making. That gives me a sliver of confidence but my fear is that the market will crumble again when the first few waves of large-scale US testing begin.
For now, everyone is doing the only thing that works and that’s buying US dollars. Some fresh swap lines today have inspired a small reversal but nothing else is working so you have people piling in and the price action creates its own momentum. I’m newly hopeful that we’re close to a turn and I fear if we get another wave of USD buying, we’re going to see direct central bank intervention. If that’s the case, the safe haven flows are likely to shift into gold. That’s inevitable in any case, it’s just a matter of time because the costs of this are already out of control."
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Coronavirus: Why more black swans are coming


Published: Thursday March 12, 2020 @ 16:56 EDT
Duration: 7.88 minutes
Views: 3,379
Likes: 41
Dislikes: 3
Favorite: 0
Rating: 99.93
Description: Adam Button, currency analyst at ForexLive talks about the outlook for global markets and the many, mounting risks. Most people are overly focused on the first-order risks from coronavirus but the second-order effects are what's going to swamp sentiment -- even more than it is already. Adam talks about where the Canadian dollar is headed and where to hide.
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The currency to own during the virus outbreak


Published: Friday February 28, 2020 @ 13:11 EST
Duration: 6.13 minutes
Views: 1,839
Likes: 45
Dislikes: 2
Favorite: 0
Rating: 99.96
Description: The endless drip of new worrisome cases led market participants to unload everything in one of the worst weeks ever in equities. It’s an understandable reaction to the extreme uncertainty from the coronavirus. However almost all wealth needs to be held in some currency or some place; we look at the places that stand to benefit now and as the virus unfolds.
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The market is search for a new theme. Here is where to watch


Published: Friday January 17, 2020 @ 10:33 EST
Duration: 6.55 minutes
Views: 792
Likes: 22
Dislikes: 1
Favorite: 0
Rating: 99.95
Description: The themes of 2019 were 1) the US-China trade war 2) Brexit 3) Central bank easing. With the signing of the phase one deal and with central banks easing close to the finish line (the BOE, RBA and some EM central banks are still in play), the market suddenly finds itself without a theme.
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Two charts to watch for the pulse on global growth


Published: Thursday January 02, 2020 @ 17:11 EST
Duration: 5.10 minutes
Views: 677
Likes: 26
Dislikes: 1
Favorite: 0
Rating: 99.96
Description: The global economy slowed in mid-2019 on the combination of higher interest rates and the trade war. Since then the Fed and others have lowered rates and now we have a ceasefire in the trade war.
Some things like real estate have quickly turned around and stock markets are clearly pricing in more of the same, yet manufacturing is still soft. A few manufacturing surveys were out today and the theme was a continue flatline.
A good spot to watch is the JPMorgan global PMI because it aggregates them. It started 2018 at 54 then slowly sank to 49.3 into mid-2019. The latest number was out today at 50.1, which is barely expanding and lower than the previous month.
The other spot to watch is AUD/USD. At the end of December it broke above the 200-day moving average for the first time in 23 months. That’s a great sign for the reflation and global growth trade.

Why the pound has fallen since election night


Published: Friday December 20, 2019 @ 11:27 EST
Duration: 5.20 minutes
Views: 1,538
Likes: 40
Dislikes: 0
Favorite: 0
Rating: 100.00
Description: The pound surged on election night but the next day it all fell apart. Why? Adam Button from ForexLive explains in this interview. He also talks about Presidential impeachment and the outlook for the Canadian dollar in 2020.
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The key trade deal detail everyone is missing


Published: Thursday December 05, 2019 @ 18:18 EST
Duration: 6.10 minutes
Views: 1,196
Likes: 19
Dislikes: 1
Favorite: 0
Rating: 99.95
Description: It’s impossible to separate fact from fiction with all the noise in the China-US trade talks but a report this week was notable for an intriguing detail. It said that Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner had gotten involved in talks.
Adam Button speaks about why that might be telling. He also talks about the state of global growth and why the optimists are early.
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Two emerging FX trades for an end to the trade war


Published: Thursday November 07, 2019 @ 20:13 EST
Duration: 5.55 minutes
Views: 1,438
Likes: 40
Dislikes: 1
Favorite: 0
Rating: 99.98
Description: Adam Button from ForexLive discusses three currencies to avoid as the trade war ends along with a developed market trade and two emerging market currencies that could have big runs in the months ahead.
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