Gold Prices In Q3 2024 Are Mixed

Published: Saturday July 13, 2024 @ 18:00 EDT
Duration: 1.67 minutes
Views: 227
Likes: 11
Favorite: 0
Description: Gold prices in Q3 2024 are mixed due to increased central bank buying and US interest rate expectations. Gold reached a record high in May at 2450, with support levels around 2280. Volatility is expected, with range traders playing the 2280-2450 range as support and resistance. Silver is on an uptrend and testing uptrend support lines, potentially consolidating or moving lower.

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The Bitcoin Market Faces An Imbalance Between Supply And Demand

Published: Thursday July 11, 2024 @ 18:00 EDT
Duration: 1.85 minutes
Views: 368
Likes: 10
Favorite: 0
Description: The bitcoin market faces an imbalance between supply and demand, with mining rewards for 900 new bitcoins reduced to 450. Despite spot ETF providers acquiring 60 billion bitcoins, the market is largely supported near the early 60,000 level, with Bitcoin needing to break over the 72,000 mark for a record high. Although unclear, the third quarter of the year's forecast for Bitcoin and Ethereum is still favorable. In the bitcoin market, there is still an imbalance between supply and demand. The mining rewards for 900 new bitcoins each day have now been halved to just 450, despite the fact that spot ETF providers have acquired about 60 billion bitcoins since its founding.

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Euro Under Pressure: Euro Q3 Forecast

Published: Tuesday July 09, 2024 @ 18:00 EDT
Duration: 1.90 minutes
Views: 210
Likes: 8
Favorite: 0
Description: As France faces elections in Q3, market uncertainty could escalate due to potential political deadlock, resulting in difficulty passing legislation. This scenario may lead to soaring bond yields, already observed in the French-German spread. Additionally, fears of contagion impacting peripheral nations, potentially affecting bond markets adversely. Despite this, if inflation trends improve as seen in the US and unexpectedly in the EU, the euro might recover losses towards the end of Q3, influencing the EUR/USD exchange rate.

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NVIDIA Briefly Top U.S. Market Cap Rankings

Published: Monday July 08, 2024 @ 18:00 EDT
Duration: 2.57 minutes
Views: 95
Likes: 2
Favorite: 0
Description: NVIDIA's outperformance in Q2 has led to a less inclusive rally in U.S. indices, with fewer stocks trading above their 200-day simple moving averages. The Fed's push back on rate cuts has subsided bullish momentum in US indices, and the new earnings season kicks off in July. Analysts recently raised full-year earnings growth to 11.3%, but the election year is also affecting the stock market. The outlook for US indices remains bullish, but headwinds like inflation expectations, a less inclusive rally, and seasonal consolidation limit the extent of indices' rise in Q3.

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Australian Dollar Q3 Forecast: Stability Ahead

Published: Saturday July 06, 2024 @ 18:00 EDT
Duration: 1.78 minutes
Views: 281
Likes: 8
Favorite: 0
Description: The third-quarter forecast for the AUD/USD pair indicates stability with minimal changes expected. The primary factor influencing this forecast is the consistent interest rate differential between the U.S. and Australia. While U.S. interest rates were anticipated to decline, the first cut is now postponed to late Q4. Conversely, the Reserve Bank of Australia may not adjust rates until the first half of 2025 due to persistent high inflation. Despite potential economic expansion and commodities growth favoring the Australian dollar, significant shifts in the AUD/USD pair are unlikely in the short term.

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Bank of England's Impact on the British Pound

Published: Thursday July 04, 2024 @ 18:00 EDT
Duration: 1.85 minutes
Views: 293
Likes: 10
Favorite: 0
Description: As we head into Q3 2024, the British pound faces downward pressure mainly due to anticipated interest rate cuts by the Bank of England, likely starting in mid-September, and political uncertainty surrounding the upcoming general election slated for July 4th. A potential win by the Labour party could lead to changes in fiscal policies, impacting sterling and associated assets. Economically, the UK shows signs of improvement with inflation at target levels and growth picking up, yet currency pairs like GBP/USD ("cable") and GBP/EUR might see a decline due to these internal and external factors.

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US Dollar Drifts Lower Amid Rate Cut Speculations

Published: Wednesday July 03, 2024 @ 07:00 EDT
Duration: 2.35 minutes
Views: 213
Likes: 12
Favorite: 0
Description: The U.S. dollar is expected to gradually decline due to weaker economic data, suggesting a potential rate cut could be on the horizon. However, strong GDP growth and a robust labor market may delay rate cuts compared to other countries. Inflation remains high, complicating the Federal Reserve's policy outlook, but recent trends in core PCE inflation data could restore confidence in reaching their 2% inflation target by 2026. The next few months will be key, with a possible shift to a more dovish stance by the end of Q3 if positive trends continue. Risks include unforeseen economic growth and pressure from elevated oil prices, potentially impacting inflation trajectories.

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US PCE, French Elections to Provide Volatility Amidst Quarter End Flows

Published: Tuesday June 25, 2024 @ 04:10 EDT
Duration: 13.27 minutes
Views: 499
Likes: 8
Favorite: 0
Description: The Fed's preferred measure of inflation and uncertainty around French elections are likely to drive markets as we close out the second quarter.
In this week's analyst chat, the focus was on upcoming economic indicators and their potential impacts on markets. Key highlights included the release of inflation data from Canada, final GDP figures from both the U.S. and the UK, and the U.S. PCE data which is pivotal for Federal Reserve assessments. The discussion underscored a general decline in growth, with particular attention on how upcoming data, especially from the U.S., might influence market sentiment and currency valuations. The analysts also touched on the effects of political events like the French parliamentary elections on markets such as the Euro and CAC 40, and they debated the possible outcomes of market interventions in currency pairs like USD/JPY. Additionally, there was a brief overview of risks in trading highly volatile pairs and the ongoing performance of major indices like the S&P 500, emphasizing the importance of balance in market dynamics ahead of quarterly financial disclosures.

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Will the Massive NFP Surprise Influence Fed Thinking ahead of FOMC?

Published: Friday June 07, 2024 @ 11:51 EDT
Duration: 18.07 minutes
Views: 594
Likes: 12
Favorite: 0
Description: he massive surprise in US job growth lent a strong hand to the downtrodden dollar ahead of US CPI for May and the FOMC meeting in the week to come.


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Indices A Hawkish Tone from Central Banks Weigh on Stocks, US PCE up Next

Published: Friday May 24, 2024 @ 09:42 EDT
Duration: 16.60 minutes
Views: 499
Likes: 13
Favorite: 0
Description: The Fed and RBNZ highlight inflation risks which saw the dollar and Treasury yields strengthen, weighing on stocks. In the coming week PCE will be the main focus alongside the 2nd estimate of US GDP, Aus and EU CPI.

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The UK Returns to Growth and US CPI to Drive Markets Next Week

Published: Friday May 10, 2024 @ 14:35 EDT
Duration: 19.15 minutes
Views: 353
Likes: 15
Favorite: 0
Description: The FTSE was the main winner in a week dominated by UK data and events. All eyes will be focused on the April US CPI figures next week after March's print presented a major bullish catalyst for the greenback.
The finance-focused discussion delved into the current economic and market conditions, with a particular emphasis on the UK coming out of recession and the implications for financial markets. Key insights include robust UK GDP growth positioning it strongly within the G7, potentially influencing the Bank of England's monetary policy, including discussions on imminent interest rate cuts. Speculation on rate cut timings varied, with August seen as more likely than June, despite strong GDP figures. The conversation also touched on the US market, with expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut later in the year, influenced by inflation and labor market data. The strength of the FTSE 100 was highlighted as a sign of optimism in the UK market, bolstered by fundamental factors and meriting a longer-term positive outlook. The discussion also covered the broader risk sentiment and the performance of US indices and the volatility index. Lastly, gold's upward movement was discussed as a potential safe haven amid geopolitical tensions and structural concerns about the US dolla

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Did Japan Intervene in the FX market? USD/JPY Sharply Lower

Published: Monday April 29, 2024 @ 09:47 EDT
Duration: 11.75 minutes
Views: 928
Likes: 23
Favorite: 0
Description: Similarities from the last time Japanese Authorities intervened in the FX market have appeared after a massive USD/JPY reversal. Risk sentiment continues to favour AUD and high importance US data returns.


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Will Inflation Concerns Rattle the FOMC amid Weaker US Growth?

Published: Friday April 26, 2024 @ 11:12 EDT
Duration: 15.73 minutes
Views: 257
Likes: 9
Favorite: 0
Description: Its a US-focused week ahead with the FOMC meeting, major tech stock earnings and NFP stealing the limelight, but other standouts include US PMI data as well as EU inflation and German GDP data.
In the analyst chat, Richard Snow and Nicholas Corley discussed recent financial market developments, notably the re-acceleration of inflation as indicated by PCE data, which suggests the Federal Reserve might delay expected rate cuts. They explored concerns around U.S. GDP growth underperforming expectations, potentially impacting Fed decisions, and discussed currency movements, highlighting a notable depreciation of the yen against the dollar. The conversation also touched on upcoming key economic data releases, including German GDP and EU inflation, with speculations on central bank actions, particularly in the EU. They reviewed the impact of geopolitics on market risk sentiment and examined specific asset class performances, including the FTSE's re-rating and movements in major indices like the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, commenting on the unusual market responses to mega-cap company earnings.


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Risk Rally Supports FX Correction Ahead of US GDP, PCE Data

Published: Thursday April 25, 2024 @ 08:44 EDT
Duration: 12.18 minutes
Views: 223
Likes: 12
Favorite: 0
Description: G7 currencies have been afforded a moment to recover from recent losses against the dollar but high impact US data could put an end to that. FX intervention watch continues as USD/JPY trades above the 155.00 'line in the sand. We are analyzing quarterly U.S. GDP data, indicating a moderating but relatively robust economy, especially compared to the European Union and the U.K. The U.S. dollar shows some weakness against major currencies, influenced by surprising PMI data which could, however, be transient as interest rate differentials regain importance. The Australian dollar is highlighted for its bullish momentum amid risk-on market sentiment. U.S. equities face potential challenges from Meta's earnings guidance. Attention is drawn to the dollar-yen pair, breaching a critical level, possibly triggering Japanese official intervention, and the Bank of Japan's potential rate hike moves. Gold's position is also discussed, noting a cooling safe-haven bid but maintaining high trade levels, with future direction being contingent on emerging bullish catalysts. The overview encapsulates key financial indicators, currency dynamics, equity market impacts, and commodities outlook, providing a comprehensive financial market analysis.

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#DailyFX #usd #gdp

Will US Growth and Inflation Provide the Next Leg Higher for the Greenback?

Published: Friday April 19, 2024 @ 11:42 EDT
Duration: 18.52 minutes
Views: 314
Likes: 11
Favorite: 0
Description: US growth and inflation data may provide the next USD catalyst. What does this mean for USD/JPY amid the threat of a co-ordinated FX intervention effort to strengthen the yen. Can tech earnings revive risk sentiment? In this week's analyst chat, Richard Snow and Daily FX’s Nick Cawley discuss the recent complexities in financial markets, highlighting the mixed data from the UK, including persistently high services inflation and wage growth, juxtaposed with a weakening jobs market. They delve into potential Bank of England rate cuts, influenced by these economic indicators and the dovish outlook from Andrew Bailey. Furthermore, the conversation turns to the ECB's anticipated rate cuts, driven by weak Eurozone growth expectations, and the contrast with the Fed's position, potentially necessitating rate hikes due to robust fundamental data. The discussion also covers the impact of volatility, particularly in currency pairs like EUR/USD and USD/JPY, emphasizing risk management in trading. They discuss gold’s potential to break past the $2,400 mark, indicating a bullish outlook among investors towards safe-haven assets amidst currency devaluation concerns and geopolitical tensions. Lastly, they touch on the anticipation of upcoming tech earnings and their potential influence on equity markets, suggesting a focus shift towards corporate performance amidst ongoing global uncertainties


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Risk Sentiment in Full View as Israel-Iran Conflict is Likely to Continue

Published: Wednesday April 17, 2024 @ 09:49 EDT
Duration: 11.13 minutes
Views: 239
Likes: 6
Favorite: 0
Description: Risk assets, like the S&P 500, have printed the deepest pullback witnessed throughout the latest bull run as concerns around a broader Middle East conflict build and The Fed appears more likely to delay rate cuts due to stubborn inflation. Escalating geopolitical tensions due to Iran’s preparation for an Israeli attack, following conflict involving drone strikes. This uncertainty, coupled with unexpected inflation directions contrary to Federal Reserve hopes, has prompted a stronger dollar, negatively impacting equity markets like the S&P 500. The Fed's revised forecast suggests fewer interest rate cuts, intensifying market concerns. Additionally, U.K. economic data indicating rising unemployment but stubborn wage inflation presents challenges for the Bank of England. Inflation levels surpassing estimates have influenced the British pound, while speculation about Japanese yen intervention at the 155 dollar-yen level adds to market volatility. Gold remains resilient, supported by central bank and retail purchases amidst geopolitical and economic uncertainty.


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Risk Assets Under Pressure From Growing Middle East Tensions

Published: Tuesday April 16, 2024 @ 09:44 EDT
Duration: 10.07 minutes
Views: 144
Likes: 4
Favorite: 0
Description: US equity markets fell sharply Monday as traders took risk off the table. The impact of Middle East tensions between Iran and Israel on U.S. indices, which experienced sharp sell-offs. Amidst this risk-off environment, assets like gold and the U.S. dollar retained strength. Key economic data were mentioned, including higher-than-expected Chinese Q1 GDP, rising UK unemployment figures signaling potential rate cuts by the Bank of England, improved German and Eurozone economic sentiment, and various inflation updates on the horizon. Corley also noted marked volatility in equity markets, with particular emphasis on tech-heavy indices, and discussed currency movements, pointing out the strong dollar trend and potential Japanese intervention in the yen market. Investors were advised to monitor safe-haven assets and the VIX for insights into market sentiment.

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Risk Sentiment Improves Despite Major Geopolitical Uncertainty: Gold, USD, SPX

Published: Monday April 15, 2024 @ 11:17 EDT
Duration: 12.48 minutes
Views: 213
Likes: 11
Favorite: 0
Description: Gold and the dollar stabalise at elevated levels while EU stocks attempt a recovery. The S&P 500 is expected to open higher to start the week and USD/JPY approaches a massively significant marker.
The impact of geopolitical tensions, notably between Israel and Iran, and their repercussions on financial markets. He notes a bullish continuation in the US dollar, influenced by better-than-expected US retail sales and CPI data, indicating potential recovery from 2023's decline. The two-year Treasury yield mirrors this recovery, touching back near 5%. Moreover, the weakening Japanese yen against the dollar draws attention, nearing intervention levels at 155. Gold experiences volatility, with prices potentially consolidating after a significant uptick, while cable (GBP/USD) shows a notable decline, moving out of its trading range. Lastly, despite geopolitical uncertainties, European indices and the S&P 500 futures hint at a positive start, closely watching for developments in the Israel-Iran situation and their impacts on markets.

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GBP Outlook | Bank of England's Surprise Move: Interest Rate Cuts Ahead

Published: Saturday April 13, 2024 @ 18:00 EDT
Duration: 1.87 minutes
Views: 258
Likes: 8
Favorite: 0
Description: The Bank of England hinting at a potential 25 basis point interest rate cut in June due to decreasing inflation and a stable job market, despite slow growth. This move aligns with possible cuts by the US Fed and the European Central Bank. The British pound is expected to slightly weaken short-term against the US dollar and the euro but may stabilize later. Against the Japanese yen, the pound might depreciate as the yen appreciates.

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EUR Outlook | ECB's June Meeting: A Turning Point for the Euro

Published: Friday April 12, 2024 @ 18:00 EDT
Duration: 3.02 minutes
Views: 227
Likes: 8
Favorite: 0
Description: The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to cut interest rates and unwind its restrictive monetary policy starting in June, responding to persistently weak growth within the eurozone. ECB President Christina Lagarde hinted at a data-dependent approach, with the decision likely influenced by additional data available by the June meeting. The eurozone's largest economy, Germany, is projected to have minimal GDP growth. Anticipated rate cuts in June and possibly July aim to stimulate growth; these moves may lead to the euro weakening against other major currencies as central banks, including the Fed and the Bank of England, also plan rate adjustments. The resulting currency volatility will make Q2 an interesting period for financial markets, with implications for euro-dollar, euro-sterling, and euro-yen pairs.

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