DailyFX


Will the Massive NFP Surprise Influence Fed Thinking ahead of FOMC?


Published: Friday June 07, 2024 @ 11:51 EDT
Duration: 18.07 minutes
Views: 532
Likes: 12
Favorite: 0
Description: he massive surprise in US job growth lent a strong hand to the downtrodden dollar ahead of US CPI for May and the FOMC meeting in the week to come.


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Indices A Hawkish Tone from Central Banks Weigh on Stocks, US PCE up Next


Published: Friday May 24, 2024 @ 09:42 EDT
Duration: 16.60 minutes
Views: 478
Likes: 13
Favorite: 0
Description: The Fed and RBNZ highlight inflation risks which saw the dollar and Treasury yields strengthen, weighing on stocks. In the coming week PCE will be the main focus alongside the 2nd estimate of US GDP, Aus and EU CPI.

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The UK Returns to Growth and US CPI to Drive Markets Next Week


Published: Friday May 10, 2024 @ 14:35 EDT
Duration: 19.15 minutes
Views: 344
Likes: 15
Favorite: 0
Description: The FTSE was the main winner in a week dominated by UK data and events. All eyes will be focused on the April US CPI figures next week after March's print presented a major bullish catalyst for the greenback.
The finance-focused discussion delved into the current economic and market conditions, with a particular emphasis on the UK coming out of recession and the implications for financial markets. Key insights include robust UK GDP growth positioning it strongly within the G7, potentially influencing the Bank of England's monetary policy, including discussions on imminent interest rate cuts. Speculation on rate cut timings varied, with August seen as more likely than June, despite strong GDP figures. The conversation also touched on the US market, with expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut later in the year, influenced by inflation and labor market data. The strength of the FTSE 100 was highlighted as a sign of optimism in the UK market, bolstered by fundamental factors and meriting a longer-term positive outlook. The discussion also covered the broader risk sentiment and the performance of US indices and the volatility index. Lastly, gold's upward movement was discussed as a potential safe haven amid geopolitical tensions and structural concerns about the US dolla

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Did Japan Intervene in the FX market? USD/JPY Sharply Lower


Published: Monday April 29, 2024 @ 09:47 EDT
Duration: 11.75 minutes
Views: 911
Likes: 23
Favorite: 0
Description: Similarities from the last time Japanese Authorities intervened in the FX market have appeared after a massive USD/JPY reversal. Risk sentiment continues to favour AUD and high importance US data returns.


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Will Inflation Concerns Rattle the FOMC amid Weaker US Growth?


Published: Friday April 26, 2024 @ 11:12 EDT
Duration: 15.73 minutes
Views: 255
Likes: 9
Favorite: 0
Description: Its a US-focused week ahead with the FOMC meeting, major tech stock earnings and NFP stealing the limelight, but other standouts include US PMI data as well as EU inflation and German GDP data.
In the analyst chat, Richard Snow and Nicholas Corley discussed recent financial market developments, notably the re-acceleration of inflation as indicated by PCE data, which suggests the Federal Reserve might delay expected rate cuts. They explored concerns around U.S. GDP growth underperforming expectations, potentially impacting Fed decisions, and discussed currency movements, highlighting a notable depreciation of the yen against the dollar. The conversation also touched on upcoming key economic data releases, including German GDP and EU inflation, with speculations on central bank actions, particularly in the EU. They reviewed the impact of geopolitics on market risk sentiment and examined specific asset class performances, including the FTSE's re-rating and movements in major indices like the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, commenting on the unusual market responses to mega-cap company earnings.


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Risk Rally Supports FX Correction Ahead of US GDP, PCE Data


Published: Thursday April 25, 2024 @ 08:44 EDT
Duration: 12.18 minutes
Views: 222
Likes: 12
Favorite: 0
Description: G7 currencies have been afforded a moment to recover from recent losses against the dollar but high impact US data could put an end to that. FX intervention watch continues as USD/JPY trades above the 155.00 'line in the sand. We are analyzing quarterly U.S. GDP data, indicating a moderating but relatively robust economy, especially compared to the European Union and the U.K. The U.S. dollar shows some weakness against major currencies, influenced by surprising PMI data which could, however, be transient as interest rate differentials regain importance. The Australian dollar is highlighted for its bullish momentum amid risk-on market sentiment. U.S. equities face potential challenges from Meta's earnings guidance. Attention is drawn to the dollar-yen pair, breaching a critical level, possibly triggering Japanese official intervention, and the Bank of Japan's potential rate hike moves. Gold's position is also discussed, noting a cooling safe-haven bid but maintaining high trade levels, with future direction being contingent on emerging bullish catalysts. The overview encapsulates key financial indicators, currency dynamics, equity market impacts, and commodities outlook, providing a comprehensive financial market analysis.

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#DailyFX #usd #gdp

Will US Growth and Inflation Provide the Next Leg Higher for the Greenback?


Published: Friday April 19, 2024 @ 11:42 EDT
Duration: 18.52 minutes
Views: 308
Likes: 11
Favorite: 0
Description: US growth and inflation data may provide the next USD catalyst. What does this mean for USD/JPY amid the threat of a co-ordinated FX intervention effort to strengthen the yen. Can tech earnings revive risk sentiment? In this week's analyst chat, Richard Snow and Daily FX’s Nick Cawley discuss the recent complexities in financial markets, highlighting the mixed data from the UK, including persistently high services inflation and wage growth, juxtaposed with a weakening jobs market. They delve into potential Bank of England rate cuts, influenced by these economic indicators and the dovish outlook from Andrew Bailey. Furthermore, the conversation turns to the ECB's anticipated rate cuts, driven by weak Eurozone growth expectations, and the contrast with the Fed's position, potentially necessitating rate hikes due to robust fundamental data. The discussion also covers the impact of volatility, particularly in currency pairs like EUR/USD and USD/JPY, emphasizing risk management in trading. They discuss gold’s potential to break past the $2,400 mark, indicating a bullish outlook among investors towards safe-haven assets amidst currency devaluation concerns and geopolitical tensions. Lastly, they touch on the anticipation of upcoming tech earnings and their potential influence on equity markets, suggesting a focus shift towards corporate performance amidst ongoing global uncertainties


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Risk Sentiment in Full View as Israel-Iran Conflict is Likely to Continue


Published: Wednesday April 17, 2024 @ 09:49 EDT
Duration: 11.13 minutes
Views: 232
Likes: 6
Favorite: 0
Description: Risk assets, like the S&P 500, have printed the deepest pullback witnessed throughout the latest bull run as concerns around a broader Middle East conflict build and The Fed appears more likely to delay rate cuts due to stubborn inflation. Escalating geopolitical tensions due to Iran’s preparation for an Israeli attack, following conflict involving drone strikes. This uncertainty, coupled with unexpected inflation directions contrary to Federal Reserve hopes, has prompted a stronger dollar, negatively impacting equity markets like the S&P 500. The Fed's revised forecast suggests fewer interest rate cuts, intensifying market concerns. Additionally, U.K. economic data indicating rising unemployment but stubborn wage inflation presents challenges for the Bank of England. Inflation levels surpassing estimates have influenced the British pound, while speculation about Japanese yen intervention at the 155 dollar-yen level adds to market volatility. Gold remains resilient, supported by central bank and retail purchases amidst geopolitical and economic uncertainty.


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Risk Assets Under Pressure From Growing Middle East Tensions


Published: Tuesday April 16, 2024 @ 09:44 EDT
Duration: 10.07 minutes
Views: 139
Likes: 4
Favorite: 0
Description: US equity markets fell sharply Monday as traders took risk off the table. The impact of Middle East tensions between Iran and Israel on U.S. indices, which experienced sharp sell-offs. Amidst this risk-off environment, assets like gold and the U.S. dollar retained strength. Key economic data were mentioned, including higher-than-expected Chinese Q1 GDP, rising UK unemployment figures signaling potential rate cuts by the Bank of England, improved German and Eurozone economic sentiment, and various inflation updates on the horizon. Corley also noted marked volatility in equity markets, with particular emphasis on tech-heavy indices, and discussed currency movements, pointing out the strong dollar trend and potential Japanese intervention in the yen market. Investors were advised to monitor safe-haven assets and the VIX for insights into market sentiment.

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Risk Sentiment Improves Despite Major Geopolitical Uncertainty: Gold, USD, SPX


Published: Monday April 15, 2024 @ 11:17 EDT
Duration: 12.48 minutes
Views: 209
Likes: 11
Favorite: 0
Description: Gold and the dollar stabalise at elevated levels while EU stocks attempt a recovery. The S&P 500 is expected to open higher to start the week and USD/JPY approaches a massively significant marker.
The impact of geopolitical tensions, notably between Israel and Iran, and their repercussions on financial markets. He notes a bullish continuation in the US dollar, influenced by better-than-expected US retail sales and CPI data, indicating potential recovery from 2023's decline. The two-year Treasury yield mirrors this recovery, touching back near 5%. Moreover, the weakening Japanese yen against the dollar draws attention, nearing intervention levels at 155. Gold experiences volatility, with prices potentially consolidating after a significant uptick, while cable (GBP/USD) shows a notable decline, moving out of its trading range. Lastly, despite geopolitical uncertainties, European indices and the S&P 500 futures hint at a positive start, closely watching for developments in the Israel-Iran situation and their impacts on markets.

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GBP Outlook | Bank of England's Surprise Move: Interest Rate Cuts Ahead


Published: Saturday April 13, 2024 @ 18:00 EDT
Duration: 1.87 minutes
Views: 254
Likes: 8
Favorite: 0
Description: The Bank of England hinting at a potential 25 basis point interest rate cut in June due to decreasing inflation and a stable job market, despite slow growth. This move aligns with possible cuts by the US Fed and the European Central Bank. The British pound is expected to slightly weaken short-term against the US dollar and the euro but may stabilize later. Against the Japanese yen, the pound might depreciate as the yen appreciates.

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EUR Outlook | ECB's June Meeting: A Turning Point for the Euro


Published: Friday April 12, 2024 @ 18:00 EDT
Duration: 3.02 minutes
Views: 223
Likes: 8
Favorite: 0
Description: The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to cut interest rates and unwind its restrictive monetary policy starting in June, responding to persistently weak growth within the eurozone. ECB President Christina Lagarde hinted at a data-dependent approach, with the decision likely influenced by additional data available by the June meeting. The eurozone's largest economy, Germany, is projected to have minimal GDP growth. Anticipated rate cuts in June and possibly July aim to stimulate growth; these moves may lead to the euro weakening against other major currencies as central banks, including the Fed and the Bank of England, also plan rate adjustments. The resulting currency volatility will make Q2 an interesting period for financial markets, with implications for euro-dollar, euro-sterling, and euro-yen pairs.

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US Dollar, Gold on the Move Ahead of a UK Data-Focused Week


Published: Friday April 12, 2024 @ 09:15 EDT
Duration: 16.32 minutes
Views: 289
Likes: 9
Favorite: 0
Description: US CPI has propelled the dollar and US yields higher and clearly had no effect on gold prices. In the week ahead we take a look at possible easing in GBP/USD which is contingent on softer UK inflation and wage data.

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ECB Holds Rates Steady: Prelude to a June Cut #trading #financialmarkets #fx


Published: Thursday April 11, 2024 @ 10:36 EDT
Duration: 0.98 minutes
Views: 138
Likes: 9
Favorite: 0
Description: In the ECB's April meeting, rates were left unchanged, signaling a potential rate cut in June if economic conditions warrant it. This decision highlights a divergence between Eurozone's easing monetary policy and the US's stance, which may continue tightening due to inflation pressures and strong economic growth. This contrast could influence global financial markets, hinting at varied investment strategies for those monitoring adjustments in interest rates between major economies.

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US Equities Q2 Forecast: Riding on Rate Cut Hopes


Published: Wednesday April 10, 2024 @ 18:00 EDT
Duration: 3.63 minutes
Views: 153
Likes: 7
Favorite: 0
Description: US equities are projected to continue their strong performance into the second quarter, buoyed by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and a thriving interest in AI and tech stocks. The market is witnessing a broadening appeal, with a significant portion of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200-day moving averages, indicating a wider market upturn. Record inflows into equity funds in March underscore investor confidence, which is expected to persist. The upcoming election year could further boost stocks, aligning with historical patterns of positive performance during re-election periods. However, potential risks such as a resurgence in inflation, geopolitical tensions, and a weakening job market could temper this bullish outlook.

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#DailyFX #ai #usd

March CPI Data Shocks Economists: Prices Keep Rising


Published: Wednesday April 10, 2024 @ 11:41 EDT
Duration: 1.82 minutes
Views: 159
Likes: 6
Favorite: 0
Description: U.S. inflation, with March's CPI data surpassing expectations on both core and headline measures, defying seasonal effects explanations. This growing trend suggests inflation remains persistent and potentially escalating, pressuring the Fed to possibly adopt a more hawkish stance. Gasoline prices are contributing to the rise, alongside solid payroll and PCE data indicating robust economic activity. The U.S. dollar's strength is expected to persist, affecting EUR/USD and USD/JPY pairs, while equity markets experience volatility amidst anticipation of solid earnings growth, which could support market resilience.

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Dollar Outlook Q2: Why It Remains Strong


Published: Tuesday April 09, 2024 @ 18:00 EDT
Duration: 3.80 minutes
Views: 197
Likes: 10
Favorite: 0
Description: The outlook for the U.S. dollar in Q2 is cautiously optimistic, buoyed by its status as a safe haven and positive interest rate differentials against G7/G10 currencies. Despite a moderating U.S. economy, relative competitiveness and potential delays in Fed rate cuts due to robust growth or unexpected inflation hikes support a strong dollar. However, swift inflation declines, economic downturns, or job market slumps could weaken it. Currency pairs like EUR/USD may face pressure from Eurozone stagnation and anticipated ECB rate cuts, GBP/USD could strengthen with declining UK inflation, while USD/JPY remains watchful for Tokyo's FX interventions against widening interest rate differentials.

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Bitcoin's Q2 Surge: Beyond \$74,000 with Halving and ETF


Published: Monday April 08, 2024 @ 10:44 EDT
Duration: 2.65 minutes
Views: 475
Likes: 11
Favorite: 0
Description: The second quarter of 2024 looks promising for Bitcoin, following its surge to a new high near $74,000, driven mainly by the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs. The upcoming "halving" event, a programmed reduction in mining rewards, is anticipated to exacerbate the supply-demand imbalance. This reduction will halve the reward for mining Bitcoin, potentially escalating its value further due to reduced supply. Additionally, the potential approval of spot Ethereum ETFs by the SEC could influence market dynamics. With these factors in play, Bitcoin, along with other cryptocurrencies, may experience continued upward pressure on prices, though volatility remains uncertain.
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Escalating Conflict Raises Prospect of Safe Haven Appeal


Published: Wednesday April 03, 2024 @ 09:56 EDT
Duration: 13.95 minutes
Views: 376
Likes: 8
Favorite: 0
Description: Ukraine targets Russian oil infrastructure and promises of an Iranian retaliation to Israel's targeted strike may limit risk appetite this week, keeping gold buoyed ahead of NFP.

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FX Intervention Threat Turns up a Notch and Commodities Shine Ahead of PCE


Published: Wednesday March 27, 2024 @ 11:43 EDT
Duration: 10.90 minutes
Views: 350
Likes: 11
Favorite: 0
Description: Richard Snow reveals all the latest news, from the stability of the dollar to the rise of gold amidst geopolitical tensions. Discover why cocoa is outperforming cryptocurrencies and Nvidia, and how oil storage data is affecting traders' decisions. Keep an eye on the Japanese yen as authorities consider intervention, and don't miss out on the upcoming GDP data for the UK and US. With the highly anticipated PCE inflation data on the horizon, this video is a must-watch for anyone interested in the financial markets.
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